On the up
The cities leading residential price growth in 2020
In 2020, capital values across the 27 cities in the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index are forecast to grow by 1.8% on average, says Dr Andrew Golding, chief executive of the Pam Golding Property group, which is in association with Savills. This is a slight improvement to the 0.1% average seen in 2019 but still well below peak increases of 9.3% in June 2013.
The Index also indicates markets that continue to defy the trend. Lisbon, Sydney, and Moscow are all projected to have growth greater than 6% in 2020, thanks to a combination of low interest rates and increased demand. “Ranked 11th on Savills Index, Cape Town is expected to achieve growth in 2020 between 2 and 3.9% along with other major global cities such as Berlin, London, Singapore and Shanghai. Clearly evident is that Cape Town offers international property investors exceptional value for money,” says Dr Golding.
Lisbon is forecast to see the highest prime price growth, at between 6% and 8% in 2020. This spike in prices is driven largely by a general lack of supply compared to the level of demand within the city. There is still considerable investment by international buyers, though at a slower rate than previous years. While Berlin was the strongest performer in capital value terms in 2019, the outlook for 2020 remains uncertain due to the proposed introduction of a rental cap.
Paris and Amsterdam have re-emerged as two of the most attractive investment environments in Europe. Prices are forecast to grow between 4% and 6% in 2020. The relatively safe nature of these markets and low to negative interest rates will also continue to drive investment.
Performance in the US’s most international cities – Los Angeles, Miami and New York – has been subdued as they contended with oversupply in their prime markets. New York, adjusting to higher mansion tax rates, saw prime sales slip in 2019. The slowdown is expected to continue into 2020, with price increases hovering around 1% and below, though high levels of inventory could pose a buying opportunity for some.
San Francisco, a perennial outlier in terms of high price performance, is forecast to continue its positive growth trend in 2020. Though capital value growth is predicted to only grow between 0% and 1.9%, these figures are stronger than other gateway markets in the US.
The uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific prime residential markets is forecast to continue in 2020. Sydney is predicted to lead the region with more than 6% capital value growth in 2020. This growth is supported by lower interest rates, increasing immigration and continued increases in demand. However, the market remains sensitive to global uncertainty and price increases could be reactive to any fluctuations in the market.
Singapore and Tokyo are proving to be stable markets in a region, which seems beset by continuing uncertainty. Despite the demographic challenges facing Japanese markets, Tokyo consistently performs well economically.
Mainland Chinese cities are forecast to record positive growth in 2020, but at rates well below the double-digit annual growth recorded between 2013 and 2017.
In Hong Kong, popular unrest and the US-China trade war will continue to take a toll on the prime residential market. For 2020, there is a predicted small decrease for luxury residential prices.
In Dubai, oversupply is continuing to have a stifling effect on price growth, with 2020 values forecast to decline between 2% and 3.9% from 2019. A new government committee to monitor new supply will also help in regulating new launches throughout 2020 and could assist in reducing price declines across the city.